S10/S10a Earthquake Prediction: Open session, Operational Earthquake Forecasting

IASPEI (Seismology, Geophysics)

01-Jul-2015, 13:30 - 15:00

Abstract content:

Results and features of sesmic forecasting experiments for Kamchatka and Japan regions

Results of seismic forecasting using empirical scheme of short-term earthquake prediction are discussed. Since 2002, all 6 officially registered predictions with M7+ for Kamchatka zone are realized without missing events and false alarms including the strongest earthquake of May 24, 2013. Five of these 6 earthquakes were deep focus with epicenters located in the Okhotsk Sea. They occurred around the new moons and full moons ±3 days.

Since 2011, for Japan zone for 15 occurred earthquakes with M6.3+, 13 had official predictions with one missing event (Feb 02, 2013, Hokkaido, M6.9) and one event (Sep 04, 2013, Idzu, M6.4) when monitoring wasn't performed. In several cases, it was noted lowering of predicted magnitudes caused by nearby passages of typhoons or appearance of anomalous ring cloud structures (ARCS).

For the first time, ARCS having nearly perfect semicircumference form with diameter of 300km was observed on May 02, 2013 at the south of Okhotsk plate near Tokyo Bay. Lately, ARCS were observed in the Japan region regularly enough, specifically, before earthquakes of March 02 and 13, June 30, July 11, 2014. These events have lesser magnitudes then their values, predicted by the empirical scheme. Retrospectively, ARCS having concentric circles form were revealed on the satellite images of Feb 19, 2011 in the region of epicenter of Tohoku mega-earthquake of March 11, 2011.

Authors consider these ARCS as the possible indicators of active experiments of forced tectonic stress release, conducted by Japan geophysicists. Possible physical mechanisms of ARCS generation and consequences of these experiments are discussed.
The work was financially supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of Russian Federation (contract No.14.577.21.0109, project UID RFMEFI57714X0109)

L. Doda1, V. Natyaganov2, S. Shopin1.
1Tula State University, R&D Department, Tula, Russia.
2Moscow State University, Department of Mechanics and Mathematics, Moscow, Russia.


empirical scheme     short-term earthquake prediction     cloud structures