M21 Decadal Climate Dynamics and Prediction

IAMAS (Meteorology)

23-Jun-2015, 15:00 - 16:30

Abstract content:

Decadal climate forecasts and their evaluation of accuracy and spread in the MiKlip prediction system

We show the evaluation of temperature and precipitation forecasts obtained with the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system. The combination of forecasts for the next years and its evaluation on lead years enables a clear assessment. These decadal hindcast experiments are verified with respect to the accuracy of the ensemble mean and the ensemble spread as a representative for the forecast uncertainty. The skill assessment follows the verification framework already used by the decadal prediction community, but enhanced with additional evaluation techniques like the logarithmic ensemble spread score. The core of the MiKlip system is the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. An ensemble of 10 members is initialized annually with ocean and atmosphere reanalyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. For assessing the effect of the initialization and its added value, we compare these predictions to uninitialized climate projections with the same model system. Furthermore, we show that increasing the ensemble size improves the MiKlip decadal climate prediction system for all lead years.

C. Kadow1, S. Illing1, O. Kunst2, H.W. Rust1, H. Pohlmann3, W.A. Müller3, U. Cubasch1.
1Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Berlin, Germany.
2Zuse Institute Berlin, Zuse Institute Berlin, Berlin, Germany.
3Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.


Decadal Prediction     Forecast     Initialization     Climate Variability     MiKlip     CMIP5     Evaluation     Temperature